您的当前位置:首页 > 私募资讯 > Bitfinex report: Market volatility will intensify, Bitcoin is expected to hit new highs after US election 正文
时间:2025-05-17 11:25:02 来源:网络整理 编辑:私募资讯
Bitfinex,thecryptocurrencyexchange,saidinareportreleasedonMondaythattheuncertaintyoftheUSelection,th
Bitfinex, the cryptocurrency exchange, said in a report released on Monday that the uncertainty of the US election, the "Trump Trading" narrative and seasonal factors in the fourth quarter created a "perfect storm" for Bitcoin, and the market is preparing for possible turbulence. Analysts believe that given the steady growth of Bitcoin call options and favorable seasonal factors in the fourth quarter, Bitcoin may break through a historic high of $73666 after the US election.
Bitfinex's report pointed out that due to geopolitical uncertainty, macroeconomic factors and the increasingly strong narrative of "Trump trade", the volatility of Bitcoin has increased. Last week, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline of 6.2% before rebounding. This pullback highlights the growing impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on recent prices. The market generally believes that the Republican Party's victory over Bitcoin and other risky assets is beneficial. The correlation between Trump's chances of being elected and Bitcoin's upward trend has been strengthened.
On the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket, users believe that the probability of Trump winning has risen to 66.3%, while He Jinli has dropped to 33.7%.
Bitfinex analysts continued to discuss the trading situation in the Bitcoin options market, pointing out that high implied volatility suggests that market volatility may increase in the next two weeks.
The expectation surrounding the election has stimulated a surge in option activity, with options expiring on key days before and after the election being traded at higher premiums, and implied volatility expected to peak at a daily volatility of 100 on November 8th (i.e. after election day) - indicating that the market is preparing for potential volatility
Analysts say that regardless of the outcome of the US election, Bitcoin's short-term volatility is expected to be higher than usual, while in the long run, Bitfinex continues to hold a bullish attitude towards Bitcoin.
The Bitfinex report also identified favorable seasonal factors for Bitcoin. Based on past history, Bitcoin typically performs strongly in the fourth quarter after a six-month decline, with a median quarterly return of 31.34%. Analysts suggest that this strong seasonal effect, combined with record breaking open interest in options and futures, reflects market participants' optimism towards the year-end phase and may drive Bitcoin to a historic high.
The report states, "Supporting this optimism is the steady growth of call options expiring on December 27th, particularly concentrated at the strike price of $80000. As open options contracts climb to new highs, the market is showing signs of laying out for a post election rally, which could push Bitcoin closer to or even beyond its historical high of $73666
Vitalik探讨Rollup「完全去中心化」进程:系统足够安全是关键2025-05-17 11:07
viabtc怎么购买矿机 viabtc矿池怎么挖矿2025-05-17 10:55
公积金贷款逾期一次-公积金贷款逾期一次会有什么后果2025-05-17 10:54
中芯国际收盘涨1.29%,主力资金净流出5.15亿元2025-05-17 10:27
比特币戒指价格多少2025-05-17 09:39
bts如何买卖2025-05-17 09:36
WING ON CO(00289.HK)10月31日耗资1.2万港元回购1000股2025-05-17 09:36
core钱包是hd2025-05-17 09:28
华海清科:主打产品市场占有率提高,CMP机台Universal H300和晶圆减薄机Versatile–GP300获得批量销售订单,已成晶圆再生专业代工厂2025-05-17 09:20
云币平台2025-05-17 09:19
怎么补办住房公积金卡-怎么补办住房公积金卡流程2025-05-17 11:43
四方科技:股票交易异常波动,连续三日涨幅偏离值累计达 20%2025-05-17 11:31
专项扣除和专项附加扣除内容有哪些2025-05-17 11:27
平安意外险审核需要多久?详细解析审核流程!2025-05-17 11:14
苏宁任性付如何强开?我要开通苏宁任性付。2025-05-17 10:50
花旗:维持比亚迪股份(01211.HK)“买入”评级 目标价升至500港元2025-05-17 10:36
提取现金付劳务费凭证怎么做2025-05-17 10:27
trezor钱包价格2025-05-17 10:25
Shiba Inu:当SHIB达到1美元时的现实与幻想2025-05-17 09:36
比特币哪个平台2025-05-17 09:12